The posts for June will be released over the next couple days, with regular programming resuming from Sunday onwards.

1. Tamay Besiroglu & Lennart Heim – “Explosive Growth from AI? A Review of the Arguments”

  • Can AI trigger tenfold economic growth? This review parses the case for a world where “digital labour” scales output like never before.
  • Classic growth models predict acceleration if AI automates labour, capital, and R&D - removing the last bottlenecks to scale.
  • However, alignment problems, regulatory drag, and diminishing returns in R&D could slow or stall this trajectory.
  • Physical constraints (like energy and land) seem overstated- there’s room to grow, especially with efficiency gains.
  • The authors estimate even odds for explosive growth this century - but emphasise deep uncertainty and a need for more empirical study. !

Explosive Growth from AI? A Review of the Arguments – Epoch AI

2. Segun T. Aroyehun et al. – “Computational Analysis of US Congressional Speeches Reveals a Shift from Evidence to Intuition”

  • Analysing 145 years of US Congressional speeches, this study finds a long-term decline in evidence-based language since the 1970s.
  • The shift towards intuition - language rooted in belief, emotion, and subjective judgement - correlates with rising polarisation and inequality.
  • The ‘EMI’ score (evidence-minus-intuition) sharply drops after a 1975 peak, tracking a fall in legislative productivity.
  • Regression models show that lower EMI scores precede higher inequality, hinting at a feedback loop of poor discourse and policy inaction.
  • Media logic and performative politics may be replacing deliberative reason -potentially weakening democratic institutions.

Computational Analysis of US Congressional Speeches Reveals a Shift from Evidence to Intuition – Nature Human Behaviour

3. Arctotherium – “Non-Linear Ethnic Niches: The emerging Western caste system”

  • Across industries like motels, nail salons, and trucking, tight-knit immigrant groups dominate sectors with no natural ethnic affinity.
  • Success hinges on informal finance, family labour, and language-based hiring - creating de facto ethnic cartels in fragmented low-margin markets.
  • These niches often stifle competition and innovation, leading to economic efficiency in the short run but stagnation in the long term.
  • The broader critique: non-linear ethnic niches fracture national markets and revive kin-based economies - a regression from Western individualism.
  • Comparing to India, the article warns that continued immigration could entrench caste-like economic structures in the West. !

Non-Linear Ethnic Niches – Aporia